Hidden Nerf on big turtles and books with Alvida Event?

Hi,

made the Elite Alvida 30 times and thats my farm results:

15 small turtles
2  big turtles
0 Books

Buggy's Counterattack 30 times
8-10     small turtless
8-10     big Turtles
2-5     books

Buggy's Counterattack dropped a hell of big turtles and books.With the new Event i only get small turtles.

It is all luck. I did 20 elite alvida and got 10 big turtles out of that run.

Personally I'm finding that my luck with turtles is horrendous on the Elite Alvida event, but it is probably just bad luck.

~30 (I'll go with the lower number since I'm sure I did do that many though it could have been up to 5 more)
9 small turtles
3 big turtle
1 books
3 Alvida
9 Coby
3 Sea King (Master of the Near Sea)
3 Gaimon

Yea, quite the bad luck, since I see the turtles when I fight them and rarely do they actually give me that lovely golden glow when they die

Got to be luck. Since Alvida started I might have ran it about 25 times or so.

6 small turtles
6 big turtle
7 books
3 alvida
5 coby

Drop rate for big turtle going down in Alvida event compare to Buggy for me. I dont know what about others?

It is probably about the same, maybe a tiny bit less.

After it started to pick back up I stopped counting.

Estimated numbers
~60 Elite Runs
- 15 Big Turtle
- 14 Small Turtles
- 3 Chopper Books
- 9 Alvida
- 18 Coby
- 8 Gaimon
- 8 Sea King (Master of the Near Sea)

So it seems to be approx about 50% drop for turtles on avg for me at least

First week i got 2 turtles every 3 tries at Elite Alvida. Second week I got 1 every 4 tries.

Hidden nerf comfirmed.

Lol, I still get mine about every other try, though with my rather bad luck, every other one it skipped were the big turtles.

Hi Guys,

I been keeping track of the drops. As you can see below I think the drop rate for big turtles are roughly 40%. I will probably keep tracking this for Kuro as well. Also I will be tracking the first hit theory but do not have enough data to post that info yet. =)

Alvida                     Amount  Percentage
Number of Tries 83

Big Turtle                        33 39.76%
Little Turtle                     21 25.30%
Skill Book                        22 26.51%
Boss Drops                      14 16.87%
Longest Streak No 9
Longest Streak Yes 3

Luong wrote:Hi Guys,

I been keeping track of the drops. As you can see below I think the drop rate for big turtles are roughly 40%. I will probably keep tracking this for Kuro as well. Also I will be tracking the first hit theory but do not have enough data to post that info yet. =)

Alvida                     Amount  Percentage
Number of Tries 83

Big Turtle                        33 39.76%
Little Turtle                     21 25.30%
Skill Book                        22 26.51%
Boss Drops                      14 16.87%
Longest Streak No 9
Longest Streak Yes 3

wow, nice job

Luong wrote:Hi Guys,

I been keeping track of the drops. As you can see below I think the drop rate for big turtles are roughly 40%. I will probably keep tracking this for Kuro as well. Also I will be tracking the first hit theory but do not have enough data to post that info yet. =)

Alvida                     Amount  Percentage
Number of Tries 83

Big Turtle                        33 39.76%
Little Turtle                     21 25.30%
Skill Book                        22 26.51%
Boss Drops                      14 16.87%
Longest Streak No 9
Longest Streak Yes 3

What is meant with the term "first hit theory"?

First hit theory means to determine if drop rate is affected by whether killing a particular unit first would give you a better chance at a drop. Alot of discussion has been made that you should kill the unit off that you want first at every battle. This is because there is only one drop per battle. However, some has claim that it doesn't matter and hitting a particular unit first does not increase your odd of getting that unit. So I want to compare whether killing a unit first or not have the same percentage of drop rate. If there isn't then my assumption is that drops are predetermined at every battle.

Thats a very usefull thing you are trying to do. Thank you. I am currently farming Alvida Elite and I write down, how often units drop. I can send it to you, when the event is over (because seven times isnt really significant)

Yea sounds great.....pm your numbers to me when your done and I'll add it to the total. Im still keeping track, but I think when I hit around 300_500 I'll stop because I think thatll be a good sample size. For the first drop I'll post something when I have closer to 100.

Just continue this journey

I did a statistic for myself and i have the bad feeling that it is predetermined. Everytime the three teenage turtles appear i have some kind of the same line up in this lvl. I have the feeling (but i will try to be sure about it) that the turtle for sure drops, when the upper left turtle has one round till he attacks. The turtle right down will usually drop. Now call me stupid, it's just a feeling that i have

I'm impressed with all the hard work put in this! Based on some comments I read in Japanese, there's a way to reset the battle (by killing the task), and using that method, people have figured that the drops are predetermined per battle.

Now, dislaimers are that I haven't been able to do this "reset" or confirm the drops like you all are doing. Just FYI.

Stick with killing the unit that you want drops first, it works.

I think we have to imagine how someone would program a drop system. Would a calculation at the moment you are attacking fast enough or has it to be calculated before you start battle. Just a thought on the problem, but ...